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Tornado 'Drought' Marks July 2012

Becky Kellogg Published: Jul 30, 2012, 2:48 PM EDT weather.com

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Chalk it up to another meteorological anomaly for this bizarre 2012 weather year: July 2012 is on pace to have the lowest July tornado count since 1951.

"The preliminary tornado count for July 2012 is 24 tornadoes (as of July 30)," reports Tornado Expert Dr. Greg Forbes.

Although this would be the lowest July tornado count since 1951, it is now above the all-time record lowest July tornado count of 23 set in 1950 and 1951.

July 26 is the only day this month where we've had an above-average daily tornado count. A total of six tornadoes touched down in the Northeast, which is above the daily average count of three to four.

JULY TORNADOES

  • 2012:  24 tornadoes (preliminarily as of July 30)
  • 1950/51:  23 tornadoes (record low) 
  • Average:  110 tornadoes

The same weather pattern that's causing the prolonged heat and drought in the Central U.S., is also causing the so-called tornado drought.

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"The jet stream is way up in Canada," says Dr. Forbes.  "With the jet stream so far away up in Canada, the wind shear hasn't been favorable for storms to rotate (and produce tornadoes).  They've been more pop-up types of storms or bow echoes which produce damaging winds rather than tornadoes."

It's the same pattern that existed in May, when we reported a very low tornado month.  Like geese flying north for summer, the jet stream flew north for the summer.  It just went there a few months earlier than unusual.

"When it got so hot and dry early (in the summer), we've just continued to cook and dry out over the Central U.S.  That's caused the below average tornado count in July 2012."

(More: Dr. Forbes TOR:CON Tornado Forecast | Tornado Safety & Preparedness)

This comes after the early months of 2012 set a record high tornado pace.  It's simple another strange flip-flop in a year of weather oddities.

"January, February, March was a record high tornado pace.  And now July is on a record low tornado pace."

Dr. Forbes stresses that tornadoes can happen anytime of the year.  At The Weather Channel, we refer to Fall as the second tornado season.

"In early fall, if there's going to be a large number of tornadoes they tend to come from landfalling tropical systems, while in late fall they can come from strengthening cold fronts and weather systems becoming more active," says Dr. Forbes.  

"Also, we may go into El Nino.  While that is not so favorable for tropical cyclones, there's been some tendency for the latter months of El Nino years to have above average tornadoes."

Follow Becky Kellogg on Twitter.

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